Sunday, April 15, 2018

Salary/WAR = wins per dollar, which decreases quickly with age.

Top ten in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 2017:

WARSALSAL/WARMVP
1Altuve • HOU8.3$4,500,000$542,169AL5
2Judge • NYY8.1$544,500$67,2221
3Stanton • MIA7.6$14,500,000$1,907,895NL8
4Votto • CIN7.5$22,000,000$2,933,3339
5Arenado • COL7.2$11,750,000$1,631,9447
6Simmons • LAA7.1$8,000,000$1,126,7616
7Ramirez • CLE6.9$971,400$140,7833
8Trout • LAA6.6$20,083,000$3,042,87910
9Betts • BOS6.4$950,000$148,4384
10Correa • HOU6.3$535,000$84,9212

Mike Trout's number is skewed because he was injured and played only 114 games. However, if he had the 10.5 WAR he had in 2016, his SAL/WAR would have been $1,912,667. That's just a bit more than Giancarlo Stanton but still more than $1 million less per WAR than Joey Votto.

In a very real sense players become less valuable as they are paid more. The increase in performance does not come close to matching their salary. Aaron Judge was by far the most cost efficient among these 2017 top ten but his value will decrease relative to salary no matter how well he plays.

In 2012 Mike Trout was a rookie who led the American League in WAR with 10.5 and he was paid about $500,000. Miguel Cabrera was fourth in AL WAR but led in triple crown stats HR, RBI, BA and was voted MVP. Cabrera was paid $21,000,000. His salary for 2018 is $30,000,000. For 2012:

WARSALSAL/WAR
Trout10.5$500,000$47,619
Cabrera7.1$21,000,000$2,957,746

Trout crushed Cabrera. Now, despite continued improvement as a player, Trout is turning into Cabrera. Trout is becoming an increased salary burden to his team. The same is happening to both 2017 MVPs. Let's see how their and Trout's SAL/WAR would look with their 2018 salaries. For Trout we'll use his 2016 WAR of 10.5.

WARSALSAL/WAR
Trout10.5$34,083,000$3,246,000
Altuve8.3$9,000,000$1,084,337
Stanton7.6$25,000,000$3,289,474

Jose Altuve is still a relative bargain but Trout and Stanton are in about the same boat. Stanton's salary is scheduled to peak at $32,000,000 in 2023, 2024, 2025 for age seasons 33, 34, 35 and his contract runs through 2028 age 38 as it gradually goes back down to $25,000,000. At least Trout is at $34,083,000 only for 2018, 2019, 2020 his age 26, 27, 28 seasons when his contract ends. Maybe Marlins boss Derek Jeter isn't such a dope after all for trading Stanton to the Yankees.

But wait, Jose Altuve's contract runs through 2024 and more than triples to $29,000,000 for each of the last five years, ages 30-34. How valuable will he seem then no matter how well he plays? Even at his current peak that would be about $3.5 million per WAR.

None of this is new. Similar numbers could be shown for Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle. Both were paid top dollar in their final seasons: $100,000. Both retired after age 36 even though the Yankees offered both their same salaries to continue performing well below their highs.

Salary figures are a bit vague but Willie Mays appears to have been getting at least $160,000 for his age 40, 41, 42 seasons. Hank Aaron was paid at least $200,000 for ages 38, 39, 40, 41, 42. Those last two of each for the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers respectively when Mays and Aaron were shadows of their former selves.

Box office and name recognition count too, or at least management hopes so. See next post:

Mike Trout's value diminishes as his salary increases.

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