Manny Machado: market value may be less than you think.

Manny Machado

Positions: Third Baseman and Shortstop

Bats: Right  •  Throws: Right

6-3, 185lb

Team: Baltimore Orioles (majors)

Born: July 6, 1992 (Age: 25-191 days) in Hialeah, FL us

All Star 2013, 2015, 2016    OPS+ 116

Games started fielding:
3B 715
SS 49

Spanning Multiple Seasons 2013 to 2017, Played at least 75% of games at 2B, 3B or SS, At least 2500 plate appearances), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+:

Rk	Player	OPS+	HR	SB	PA	From	To	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Josh Donaldson	144	164	28	3270	2013	2017	27-31	742	2799	491	789	162	12	491	410	14	603	31	5	25	68	5	.282	.377	.524	.901	*5/DH63	OAK-TOR
2	Jose Altuve	134	75	191	3447	2013	2017	23-27	778	3154	455	1022	199	18	354	219	34	359	32	12	30	95	51	.324	.371	.470	.840	*4/DH6	HOU
3	Adrian Beltre	131	116	5	2952	2013	2017	34-38	699	2670	386	821	150	7	427	235	37	335	23	0	24	67	2	.307	.366	.499	.865	*5/DH	TEX
4	Robinson Cano	131	124	20	3383	2013	2017	30-34	784	3071	426	917	178	5	468	265	57	445	27	0	20	99	11	.299	.357	.481	.838	*4/DH6	NYY-SEA
5	Matt Carpenter	129	91	14	3279	2013	2017	27-31	743	2765	498	765	199	20	358	438	18	593	37	10	29	21	14	.277	.379	.462	.841	*543/HD9	STL
6	Daniel Murphy	124	84	45	3052	2013	2017	28-32	720	2818	409	856	203	16	405	189	39	353	18	0	27	63	13	.304	.348	.477	.825	*4/53HD	NYM-WSN
7	Kyle Seager	120	130	27	3361	2013	2017	25-29	792	3003	396	794	165	10	426	301	26	556	36	1	20	61	16	.264	.337	.456	.792	*5/HD6	SEA
8	Nolan Arenado	118	148	11	3022	2013	2017	22-26	720	2758	420	800	184	23	506	212	34	449	15	4	32	84	11	.290	.340	.534	.875	*5/H	COL
9	Manny Machado	117	131	37	3163	2013	2017	20-24	713	2897	414	812	168	6	380	217	16	527	13	13	23	76	22	.280	.331	.478	.809	*5/6	BAL
10	Brian Dozier	116	145	81	3430	2013	2017	26-30	767	3016	495	760	170	18	406	340	15	676	38	8	27	55	27	.252	.333	.465	.797	*4/HD	MIN
11	Evan Longoria	116	131	15	3425	2013	2017	27-31	798	3088	400	819	177	11	436	266	38	680	27	1	43	73	5	.265	.325	.457	.782	*5/DH	TBR
12	Anthony Rendon	116	78	38	2684	2013	2017	23-27	634	2350	366	657	157	10	328	274	13	442	28	4	28	38	14	.280	.358	.454	.812	*54/H6	WSN
13	Neil Walker	115	92	10	2631	2013	2017	27-31	645	2330	321	623	111	13	304	236	16	444	40	7	18	55	8	.267	.343	.445	.787	*4/H35	PIT-NYM-MIL
14	Ben Zobrist	111	65	32	3014	2013	2017	32-36	704	2607	388	695	157	15	305	359	19	384	15	9	24	64	18	.267	.356	.413	.769	*479/6HD835	TBR-OAK-KCR-CHC
15	Todd Frazier	110	150	58	3180	2013	2017	27-31	769	2811	396	679	134	6	416	293	9	689	46	4	26	63	29	.242	.321	.454	.774	*5/3DH7	CIN-CHW-NYY
16	Dustin Pedroia	110	50	36	2919	2013	2017	29-33	647	2612	360	777	149	4	315	272	10	322	8	4	23	79	20	.297	.363	.415	.778	*4/HD	BOS
17	Ian Kinsler	107	91	68	3307	2013	2017	31-35	743	3022	486	832	160	20	372	223	3	419	36	6	20	52	32	.275	.331	.432	.762	*4/DH	TEX-DET
18	Jason Kipnis	107	67	85	2915	2013	2017	26-30	665	2575	367	697	170	16	294	271	11	567	22	17	30	51	23	.271	.342	.427	.769	*4/DH8	CLE
19	Jed Lowrie	105	46	2	2505	2013	2017	29-33	599	2240	290	597	149	9	251	228	15	378	13	5	19	54	1	.267	.335	.403	.738	64/5DH	OAK-HOU
20	Asdrubal Cabrera	104	80	33	2837	2013	2017	27-31	701	2566	337	670	156	12	304	208	11	515	30	9	24	72	11	.261	.321	.425	.746	*6/45HD	CLE-WSN-TBR-NYM
21	Martin Prado	104	45	9	2593	2013	2017	29-33	617	2385	267	685	130	11	290	165	10	292	18	1	24	86	8	.287	.335	.408	.742	*5/47H9D6	ARI-NYY-MIA
22	Yunel Escobar	102	37	8	2646	2013	2017	30-34	650	2386	280	674	118	4	221	214	5	321	20	14	12	94	14	.282	.345	.382	.727	*56/HD7	TBR-WSN-LAA
23	Brandon Crawford	101	66	22	2868	2013	2017	26-30	744	2568	296	658	139	29	357	239	38	572	23	3	35	63	14	.256	.321	.410	.731	*6/H	SFG
24	Xander Bogaerts	100	51	41	2652	2013	2017	20-24	623	2418	360	684	131	11	283	190	8	491	23	5	16	59	10	.283	.339	.409	.748	*6/5H	BOS
25	Chase Utley	100	59	30	2536	2013	2017	34-38	658	2259	306	575	128	21	272	202	21	400	48	2	25	30	7	.255	.326	.408	.734	*4/H3D5	PHI-LAD
Rk	Player	OPS+	HR	SB	PA	From	To	Age	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm

If Machado made 94% of his starts at third base, why include players who mostly played second and/or shortstop?

Some played multiple positions.

Third base is considered more of a hitting position than either second base or shortstop, so Machado should dominate those players if Machado is indeed the exceptional slugger many think will command an enormous free agent contract after the 2018 season.

25 players met the criteria, which included seasons 2013-2017, all those in which Machado played full time.

The 25 include veterans Adrian Beltre (3B) #3 and Chase Utley (2B) #25.

If the query had been run only for 3B, Machado would have only these 3B ahead of him: Donaldson, Beltre, Kyle Seager and Arenado. Carpenter might not have been included since he was 2B in 2013.

Not bad. Machado would have been number 5. However, by including players at 2B and SS, Machado drops to number 9, which doesn't seem so impressive among 30 teams, just one third of the way from the top.

No SS is above Machado but "utility" man Carpenter is number 5 and there are also 2B Altuve (2017 MVP), Cano and Murphy.

This reminds us of how many good hitting infielders there are now.

But there's more. Only one OPS+ number below Machado at 116 are three players, including 2B Dozier and 3B Longoria and Rendon.

Free agent Todd Frazier (#15) is surprisingly close to Machado:
Frazier OPS+ 110, HR 150
Machado OPS+ 117, 131.

Frazier could be signed now for much less money and fewer years than Machado will cost after the 2018 season.

The only 2013-2017 2B, SS, 3B with at least 100 HR:
Donaldson 164
Frazier 150
Arenado 148 (85 home in Colorado, 63 road)
Dozier 145
Machado 131
Longoria 131
Kyle Seager 130
Cano 124
Beltre 116

So what should be the market value for Manny Machado, both now in a trade and then after the 2018 season as a free agent?