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Nice guy.  Have some blogs.  Do baseball research.

Monday, January 22, 2018

Cooperstown Justice: Good, Bad, Ugly. McGriff, Palmeiro, Belle.

Brian Kenny has turned his program on MLB Network into a persistent presentation of recent players who Kenny thinks deserve "Cooperstown Justice", Kenny's term: if not actual election into the baseball Hall of Fame, then at least serious consideration. Maybe even just more consideration than one and done.

Kenny and I had recently considered Fred McGriff. Kenny, of course, wants McGriff elected immediately if not retroactively. I on the other hand ...

Gehrig and McGriff: lefty first basemen with 493 Home Runs. Should both be in Hall of Fame? Saturday, January 6, 2018

Then I started to consider another lefty/lefty first baseman Rafael Palmeiro:

Double Trouble: 600 doubles and 600 home runs. Rafael Palmeiro could join the club of three. Saturday, January 20, 2018

Then today I heard of all people Chris "Mad Dog" Russo actually make not only a good point but one which nobody else makes: why isn't Albert Belle considered for the Hall of Fame? Or put another way, where is Belle's Cooperstown Justice?

I realized that McGriff and Palmeiro were lefty throwing, lefty hitting first basemen in almost identical seasons with almost identical slash lines :
McGriff: 1986-2004 .284/.377/.509/.886    OPS+ 134
Palmeiro: 1986-2005 .288/.371/.515/.885    OPS+ 132

McGriff is considered the good candidate because he is not tainted with PED use as Palmeiro is, making Palmeiro the bad or non candidate. Palmeiro is the one individual who should evoke some second thoughts among steroid zealots in that he at least protests his guilt. His circumstances suggest the possibility of one wrongly accused. One possibility is that a teammate, Miguel Tejeda, in Palmeiro's final two seasons, which were with Palmeiro's team 1994-1998, Baltimore, introduced PED into Palmeiro's system causing Palmeiro to fail the PED test that led to the ruin of Palmeiro.

An irony is that if Palmeiro had never returned to Baltimore for the 2004-2005 seasons, Palmeiro would probably have already been elected to the Hall of Fame. Palmeiro would still have well over 500 home runs but not 3,000 hits. More importantly, Palmeiro would never have failed a test for PED.

Which leaves us with the ill tempered Albert Belle. Had Belle been friendly with the media, Belle might have been inducted into the Hall of Fame. This is ugly, not because Belle treated media people badly, but because the media people are so biased and oblivious.

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly (1966)
Stars: Clint Eastwood, Eli Wallach, Lee Van Cleef

Saturday, January 20, 2018

Double Trouble: 600 doubles and 600 home runs. Rafael Palmeiro could join the club of three.

Sorted by doubles:

RkPlayer2BHRFromToAgeGPAABRH3BRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPSBCSBAOBPSLGOPSPosTm
1Hank Aaron6247551954197620-42329813941123642174377198229714022931383322112132824073.305.374.555.928*9783DH/45MLN-ATL-MIL
2Albert Pujols6196142001201721-3725751118897311723296816191812513071146102110336211041.305.386.561.947*3D75/9H64STL-LAA
3Barry Bonds6017621986200721-4229861260698472227293577199625586881539106491165514141.298.444.6071.051*78H/D9PIT-SFG

Double Trouble: 500 home runs and 500 doubles. And 600 each. Wednesday, June 8, 2016

13 players with at least 500 home runs and 500 doubles ...

Alex Rodriguez is only six homers away from 700 and 55 doubles from 600...

Albert Pujols is only 12 doubles short and could well reach 600 this season. It's doubtful Pujols will hit another 28 home runs in 2016 but you never know.


The exclusive double 600 club currently consists of Aaron and Bonds. Pretty amazing. That the club might double by the end of next season is also amazing.

Double down on that.
_______________________

If you look at the list in that post, you will see Rafael Palmeiro. Palmeiro his trying to make an unprecedented comeback.

Rafael Palmeiro

Positions: First Baseman and Leftfielder
Bats: Left  •  Throws: Left
6-0180lb
Born: September 241964 (Age: 53-118 days) in La Habana, Cuba
Debut: September 8, 1986 (Age 21-349 days)
Last Game: August 30, 2005 (Age 40-340 days)

Rafael Palmeiro last played in 2005 and was almost 41 years old then. He is now 53. No modern batter has been that old and the 12 year gap of not playing would make it all the more amazing if Palmeiro simply made a major league roster in 2018.

If Palmeiro could somehow play a significant amount of time he could join the 600/600 club. Palmeiro has:
585 doubles
569 home runs.

15 more doubles might be achievable but 31 home runs might be difficult, especially with testing for performance enhancing drugs (PED), including steroids. Palmeiro failed such a test and then faded into baseball oblivion. Now, however, Palmeiro is attempting a comeback against all odds.

The one thing that might help him hit those 31 homers is that now the baseballs are juiced, so the players do not need to get juiced. The batters are hitting Titleist baseballs. With his sweet swing Palmeiro might be able to launch those juiced baseballs over the walls pretty frequently. Hey, you never know.

Titleist baseballs for exceptional exit velocity and 1,000 foot Home Runs. Friday, June 23, 2017

Thursday, January 18, 2018

Giovanny Gallegos on Yankees 40 man roster. Who knew?

Giovanny Gallegos
Position: Pitcher
Bats: Right  •  Throws: Right
6-2210lb
Team: New York Yankees (majors)
Born: August 141991 (Age: 26-157 days) in Obregon, Mexico
January 6, 2011: Signed by the New York Yankees as an amateur free agent.

I was looking at the Yankees 40 man roster and was surprised that he was on it. I could not remember him pitching in 2017.

It's not all about guys like Giancarlo Stanton. Gallegos must be thrilled to be on Yankees 40 man roster ... and to potentially make the major league minimum ($545,000) if he is somehow on the Yankees roster of 25 who play the entire 2018 season in the major league.

Saturday, January 13, 2018

Manny Machado: market value may be less than you think.

Manny Machado
Positions: Third Baseman and Shortstop
Bats: Right  •  Throws: Right
6-3185lb
Team: Baltimore Orioles (majors)
Born: July 61992 (Age: 25-191 days) in Hialeah, FL us

All Star 2013, 2015, 2016    OPS+ 116

Games started fielding:
3B 715
SS 49

Spanning Multiple Seasons 2013 to 2017, Played at least 75% of games at 2B, 3B or SS, At least 2500 plate appearances), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+:

RkPlayerOPS+HRSBPAFromToAgeGABRH2B3BRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPCSBAOBPSLGOPSPosTm
1Josh Donaldson1441642832702013201727-317422799491789162124914101460331525685.282.377.524.901*5/DH63OAK-TOR
2Jose Altuve1347519134472013201723-277783154455102219918354219343593212309551.324.371.470.840*4/DH6HOU
3Adrian Beltre131116529522013201734-38699267038682115074272353733523024672.307.366.499.865*5/DHTEX
4Robinson Cano1311242033832013201730-347843071426917178546826557445270209911.299.357.481.838*4/DH6NYY-SEA
5Matt Carpenter129911432792013201727-31743276549876519920358438185933710292114.277.379.462.841*543/HD9STL
6Daniel Murphy124844530522013201728-3272028184098562031640518939353180276313.304.348.477.825*4/53HDNYM-WSN
7Kyle Seager1201302733612013201725-2979230033967941651042630126556361206116.264.337.456.792*5/HD6SEA
8Nolan Arenado1181481130222013201722-2672027584208001842350621234449154328411.290.340.534.875*5/HCOL
9Manny Machado1171313731632013201720-2471328974148121686380217165271313237622.280.331.478.809*5/6BAL
10Brian Dozier1161458134302013201726-3076730164957601701840634015676388275527.252.333.465.797*4/HDMIN
11Evan Longoria1161311534252013201727-317983088400819177114362663868027143735.265.325.457.782*5/DHTBR
12Anthony Rendon116783826842013201723-2763423503666571571032827413442284283814.280.358.454.812*54/H6WSN
13Neil Walker115921026312013201727-316452330321623111133042361644440718558.267.343.445.787*4/H35PIT-NYM-MIL
14Ben Zobrist111653230142013201732-3670426073886951571530535919384159246418.267.356.413.769*479/6HD835TBR-OAK-KCR-CHC
15Todd Frazier1101505831802013201727-31769281139667913464162939689464266329.242.321.454.774*5/3DH7CIN-CHW-NYY
16Dustin Pedroia110503629192013201729-33647261236077714943152721032284237920.297.363.415.778*4/HDBOS
17Ian Kinsler107916833072013201731-357433022486832160203722233419366205232.275.331.432.762*4/DHTEX-DET
18Jason Kipnis107678529152013201726-30665257536769717016294271115672217305123.271.342.427.769*4/DH8CLE
19Jed Lowrie10546225052013201729-33599224029059714992512281537813519541.267.335.403.73864/5DHOAK-HOU
20Asdrubal Cabrera104803328372013201727-3170125663376701561230420811515309247211.261.321.425.746*6/45HDCLE-WSN-TBR-NYM
21Martin Prado10445925932013201729-336172385267685130112901651029218124868.287.335.408.742*5/47H9D6ARI-NYY-MIA
22Yunel Escobar10237826462013201730-346502386280674118422121453212014129414.282.345.382.727*56/HD7TBR-WSN-LAA
23Brandon Crawford101662228682013201726-3074425682966581392935723938572233356314.256.321.410.731*6/HSFG
24Xander Bogaerts100514126522013201720-246232418360684131112831908491235165910.283.339.409.748*6/5HBOS
25Chase Utley100593025362013201734-386582259306575128212722022140048225307.255.326.408.734*4/H3D5PHI-LAD
RkPlayerOPS+HRSBPAFromToAgeGABRH2B3BRBIBBIBBSOHBPSHSFGDPCSBAOBPSLGOPSPosTm

If Machado made 94% of his starts at third base, why include players who mostly played second and/or shortstop?

Some played multiple positions.

Third base is considered more of a hitting position than either second base or shortstop, so Machado should dominate those players if Machado is indeed the exceptional slugger many think will command an enormous free agent contract after the 2018 season.

25 players met the criteria, which included seasons 2013-2017, all those in which Machado played full time.

The 25 include veterans Adrian Beltre (3B) #3 and Chase Utley (2B) #25.

If the query had been run only for 3B, Machado would have only these 3B ahead of him: Donaldson, Beltre, Kyle Seager and Arenado. Carpenter might not have been included since he was 2B in 2013.

Not bad. Machado would have been number 5. However, by including players at 2B and SS, Machado drops to number 9, which doesn't seem so impressive among 30 teams, just one third of the way from the top.

No SS is above Machado but "utility" man Carpenter is number 5 and there are also 2B Altuve (2017 MVP), Cano and Murphy.

This reminds us of how many good hitting infielders there are now.

But there's more. Only one OPS+ number below Machado at 116 are three players, including 2B Dozier and 3B Longoria and Rendon.

Free agent Todd Frazier (#15) is surprisingly close to Machado:
Frazier OPS+ 110, HR 150
Machado OPS+ 117, 131.

Frazier could be signed now for much less money and fewer years than Machado will cost after the 2018 season.

The only 2013-2017 2B, SS, 3B with at least 100 HR:
Donaldson 164
Frazier 150
Arenado 148 (85 home in Colorado, 63 road)
Dozier 145
Machado 131
Longoria 131
Kyle Seager 130
Cano 124
Beltre 116

So what should be the market value for Manny Machado, both now in a trade and then after the 2018 season as a free agent?